Nations around the globe are preparing for a pandemic. The virus that has scientists and the medical community the most worried is H5N1 avian influenza. Commonly referred to as “bird flu”, the virus rarely occurs in humans, yet it does have the potential to mutate and become easily transmissible from person-to-person.

What should be done?
Preparing for a pandemic is an extremely difficult and monumental task that requires cooperation from all levels of government, health officials, and the public. There are endless issues that must be addressed, such as:

• Containing the virus
• Treating the sick
• Disposing of the dead
• Maintaining social order

The World Health Organization (WHO) says that if a mutation ever happens, the virus could sweep the globe in just a few weeks, killing up to 150 million people. Some experts say that scenario is unlikely. Still, many more are very concerned about the threat.

At present, there is almost nothing in place to stop a pandemic flu. Most of the pandemic preparedness strategies are only in the initial planning stage. Add to that the fact that bird flu has an extremely high death rate -- about 50% compared with other influenza strains.

Preparation in America
The Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) says that if avian influenza sparked a pandemic, an estimated 92 million people in the US could become sick. Millions could die and schools, business, and stores would be forced to close.

Meetings have been held in cities across America with varying results. Many hospitals, emergency workers, and local agencies have written action plans. Some states have also announced plans. For example, California’s plan calls for closing schools, canceling public events, and asking people to wear masks when in public.

America has come under sharp criticism for the way it has handled the pandemic threat. Many members of congress, including Republican Bill Frist, say the Bush administration has done little to protect the country from an outbreak.

There is only one anti-viral medication shown to treat avian influenza. This medicine, called Tamiflu, is made in Switzerland. The manufacturer fills orders on a “first come, first serve” basis. The US placed its order later than many other countries, and is therefore at the bottom of the list. In the event of a pandemic, most Americans would not have access to the drug.

In November 2005, Secretary of HHS Michael Leavitt confirmed Frist's fears when he admitted that the government has not done enough to protect the public from avian influenza. HHS representatives stated that a bird flu vaccine would not be available until at least six months after the first outbreak and medication would be in short supply.

In response, HHS has created a Pandemic Influenza Plan in order to better prepare the nation for a pandemic. Also, Leavitt has met with officials from all 50 states to plan for a flu pandemic.

International efforts
Many other countries have also developed contingency plans in preparation for a potential pandemic. The United Kingdom had one of the first plans, which it crafted in 1997 and has continued to update. It has been reported in the media that officials in London are now looking for extra morgue space should a wide-scale human outbreak of bird flu occur.

The UK has also been very proactive in securing Tamiflu and reports that it has enough of the medication to cover a quarter of its population. Some other countries also feel confident about their Tamiflu supply. For instance, Australia has stockpiled 3.5 million doses.

International groups coordinate efforts
The US is working with eight international organizations, which are actively coordinating efforts with 88 other nations to better prepare for a potential pandemic. These groups include the WHO, United Nations, and the World Organization for Animal Health.

In January 2006, nations from around the world gathered in Beijing as part of an effort to prevent a pandemic. Together, the participating governments pledged $1.9 billion to support the cause. America pledged $334 million, which is far more than any other single country. Much of the money will go to help poor Southeast Asian nations where outbreaks of avian influenza in poultry have reached epidemic levels.

Although these organizations have different roles in preventing and preparing for a pandemic, the main goals include monitoring outbreaks, developing medications and vaccines, and encouraging countries to share any new information about influenza strains.

White House releases national plan to combat bird flu
May 3, 2006


Chaos Feared in Pandemic Flu Plan
AP - May 3, 2006


President Bush's plan for dealing with a flu pandemic warns that the federal government won't be able to bail out communities reeling from illness and economic upheaval, and calls on businesses and individuals to take steps now to keep vital services running. The updated plan, released Wednesday, stresses basic human needs such as medical care and food, but doesn't address some major hurdles -- how to meet those needs if massive absenteeism stops transportation by closing oil refineries, or crashes the Internet so workers can't telecommute.



National Plan for flu pandemic
watch CNN news footage of plan announcement
video provided by CNN through Yahoo! News


Dr Manny on Bird Flu
FoxNews Video with Dr. Manny Alverez on Influenza Plan


What is the Worst Case Scenario?
Fox News Video talks about possibilities

White House National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza


Read the preface to the 227 page National Strategy:
Preface to National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza


Read the entire 227 page pdf file of the White House National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza.


State Pandemic Plans

PDF documents of the State Pandemic Plans that are available from state web sites. This site is updated on a regular basis.



See also

• How the virus mutates
• What vaccines are available
• The latest news
• What you need to know